Today's A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index remain unchanged, while approximately 4,000 stocks declined. Banks and securities initially surged but then retreated. It was another losing trading day with significant stock price drops.
Yesterday was filled with laughter and joy, but today is like a frostbitten eggplant. The future market is likely to follow this pattern, with a structural slow bull market that won't allow retail investors to make a profit. Not buying stocks or exiting the stock market is the most correct choice for ordinary people for the rest of their lives.
Even if a bull market were to begin this afternoon, there's a high probability that it would lead to substantial losses in the future. Those who opened accounts in 2006, in 2014, or even those who entered at the lowest points, such as when the Shanghai Composite Index was at 100 or 200 points, most of them ended up with significant losses.
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The situation is even more pronounced with the current structural bull market. The core viewpoint of Xiao Fan has always been to advise against stock speculation. If you don't like it, don't hurt each other. After a long illness, one becomes a doctor, and it's unbearable to see others continue to be harvested by lies in the stock market...
The market keeps switching, and something is off with the trends!
One moment it's heavyweight stocks, the next it's thematic stocks. This kind of rotation makes it difficult for retail investors to profit, and there's still no opportunity for right-side trading. Chasing the market leads to being trapped, and few stocks can establish an upward trend.
The market is very off. The index doesn't fall, but stocks do. The index doesn't rise, but stocks do. This kind of market is the hardest to participate in. Xiao Fan has only one viewpoint for short-term traders, from the beginning to the end of the year: stay in cash. Don't enter the market unless there's a sharp drop of several hundred points! Once you make a profit, get out quickly.
Wait for the main uptrend, wait for the market to turn around. If there really is a bull market, it won't just last for 3 days; it will be at least 3 months. You'll have plenty of time to enter on the right side. At that time, the A-share market will be full of stocks in an upward trend. Right now, they're all in a downward trend, with only opportunities for left-side trading...
In the afternoon, will there be a larger-scale correction?Personal opinion, the key in the afternoon is the Central Huijin. If they support the market, it will turn red. A lift in the financial and liquor sectors would suffice. The stock market is likely to have no significant movement, and the same situation will probably persist next week. Just get used to it.
Adults don't need to be persuaded or have their perceptions changed. Since everyone is reading, it's clear that they want to continue playing. So, advising them to stop would be of no use. However, it's worth persisting, as if one person out of a thousand benefits, it's a good deed.
A person who has nearly drowned in the stock market and is saved to shore, never entering the stock market again or never buying stocks, is accumulating blessings and doing good deeds. Xiao Fan, who has little interest in stocks, mainly focuses on index investing because the stocks he is familiar with still do not have a margin of safety. He continues to wait for a decline and does not participate in stocks he is not familiar with, which means he will not participate in 99.9% of A-shares...
It's impossible to convince anyone to lower their expectations and become wealthy slowly. Everyone has a dream of getting rich from stock trading, and the market will educate them. An empty wallet is the best teacher.
In conclusion, those who understand will naturally understand, and those who don't will always misunderstand each other. Therefore, stock traders should choose bloggers who also trade stocks. Some people trade stocks, while others invest; this has been the case for hundreds of years, and the market has coexisted with both, often disapproving of each other for just as long.
At this point, A-shares have investment value, but the stocks I am familiar with do not, so I can only wait. Therefore, I use broad-based ETFs as a transition; they either fall to a cost-effective level, or other assets rise while they do not, also presenting a cost-effective opportunity, which is a matter of relative valuation.
Investing carries risks, so be cautious when entering the market!
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