Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system has once again elicited cheers from stock market investors.
On Thursday, September 5th, Eastern Time, Tesla's stock price rose to approximately $235 in the morning, setting a new intraday high since July 23rd, with a daily increase of 7.1%. The gains later narrowed, with the stock rising by about 4% during the midday, closing up 4.9%, and reaching a new high since July 31st. The two-day rebound from Wednesday to Thursday accumulated to about 9.3%.
Prior to the significant increase on Thursday, Tesla had posted on an official account on social media platform X, where Tesla AI announced a roadmap for new product releases. It stated that the FSD system is expected to be launched in China and Europe in the first quarter of 2025, pending approval from regulatory authorities in both regions. A Tesla China representative later confirmed to the Securities Times that the news is accurate, and the current status is awaiting regulatory approval.
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The roadmap announced on Thursday implies that the most advanced autonomous driving technology of FSD could potentially be introduced to the Chinese market as early as four months from now. This is a slight delay compared to the timeline previously anticipated by Elon Musk. In July, during the release of the second-quarter financial report, Tesla's CEO Musk stated during a performance call that Tesla would apply for regulatory approval to implement supervised FSD in China and Europe, expecting approval by the end of the year. The FSD system is set to enter "China, Europe, and other countries" when it iterates to version V12.5 or V12.6.
In the latest X post, the Tesla AI team also introduced recent iterative improvements to FSD, including the rollout of version V12.5.2 in September, which increases the takeover rate by three times. This version is compatible with the HW3.0 platform, achieving a unified model with the 4.0 platform; the rollout of the true Smart Summon feature; the rollout of Cybertruck's automatic parking; attention detection support for wearing sunglasses; a unified technology stack for highways and cities, all based on end-to-end; the rollout of Cybertruck's FSD features; and in October, the rollout of FSD reverse and parking-to-parking capabilities, with the V13 version expected to further increase the average takeover rate by six times.
In recent months, there have been frequent reports that FSD will be introduced in China. Wall Street Journal mentioned that after Musk's visit to China in April, the process of FDS entering China seemed to be put on fast forward. During his visit, Tesla was included in the China Automobile Association's data compliance list; subsequently, Baidu granted Tesla mapping and surveying qualifications and provided a lane-level navigation system. In June, Tesla China launched Baidu Maps V20; in early June, a Tesla employee "accidentally" revealed during a live broadcast that the V12 beta version of FSD was疑似 being tested in China; at the end of June, when Tesla's vice president Zhu Xiaotong was asked about when FSD would be introduced in China during a store visit in Shanghai, his response was "soon."
The roadmap for the introduction of Tesla's FSD has further heated up investors' expectations for the revenue generation of autonomous driving technology. Analyst Susannah Streeter from Hargreaves Lansdown believes that given Tesla's cooperation with Baidu, it may be easier for Tesla to be approved in China than in Europe. Ping An Securities estimates that the introduction of FSD in China could become a "catfish" in the domestic autonomous driving field, accelerating the implementation process of high-level intelligent driving in the country, and leading car manufacturers or suppliers in the high-level intelligent driving field will benefit more.
Some comments suggest that in addition to the disclosed plan for FSD's introduction in China and Europe, another factor driving Tesla's stock price higher on Thursday was the reaffirmation by Adam Jonas, a well-known Tesla bull and automotive industry analyst at Morgan Stanley. In his recent report, Jonas reiterated that among the US automotive stocks he covers, Tesla is the "top pick." Jonas gave Tesla a buy rating and a target price of $310. This target price implies that he expects Tesla's stock price to rise by more than 41% from Wednesday's closing price.
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