The stock market is a cashing out of cognition, not a reward for diligent effort. In a declining market, whether it's on the left side, the right side, or short-term, medium-term, or long-term, losses are inevitable. Xiao Fan's position in A-shares was in the red last year, and it's still in the red this year...
So far this year, how many companies in A-shares have been on an upward trend? Over 90% of the stocks are either stagnant or in a downward trend. In such a market, any participation is likely to result in losses; minimizing losses is considered a win!
Two important pieces of news!
News 1: The first batch of 10 CSI A500 ETFs were approved at lightning speed, and they may start issuance next week.
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The most fearful thing for a person is not being able to see the future. Individual ability is not as important as one might think; talent from a county can reach the top, like Liu Bang, or even from a town, like Zhu Yuanzhang. It's about working hard in the right direction and making the right choices that lead to twice the result with half the effort.
Whether it's the continuous increase of more than 700 billion by Central Huijin in real gold and silver, or the increase in ETFs by state-owned capital, foreign capital, institutions, and private equity, only retail investors are still interested in the 90% of stocks that are about to be marginalized, fantasizing that a bull market will help you break even. Even if the market rises to 27,000 points, these stocks are destined for delisting.
Xiao Fan has been auditing in the firm for so many years and has a slightly clearer understanding of what goes on behind the scenes at listed companies. If companies were really as they disclose in their reports, would major shareholders be trying every trick in the book to sell their companies? This year, there have been many new and varied methods of share reduction...
News 2: Private equity funds heavily invested in ETFs in the first half of the year, with billion-yuan-level institutions holding the highest proportion.
225 private securities funds appeared in the top ten holders of 200 ETFs, with a total holding of 3.94 billion shares of ETFs, more than double that of last year. Do you think you are more formidable than private equity, or even more formidable than Central Huijin or social security? Changzhou State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission and Tsinghua University have successively become the largest shareholders of the NASDAQ ETF!Bin But has increased his holdings in nearly 10 cross-border ETFs, and this year's top 10 private equity earnings are all from those investing in US and Hong Kong stocks! Sometimes choice is greater than effort, Xiao Fan is sincere to everyone, is it useful? Only the increasingly empty wallet will wake you up with pain, buy less A-shares, don't buy stocks, it's not that I say it's useful!
In summary: History will repeat itself. Where the capital goes, that field will be the main line of the market in the future. Do Huijin, private equity, foreign capital, and institutions need to sell? So what they are buying now will be what they will pump up in the future, and it will definitely be the broad market index, not individual stocks!
Next week's A-share market forecast
Next week, it is highly likely that the market will continue to fluctuate, as capital engages in multi- and short-term betting on ETFs outside the market. The ETF options are now complete, and the ETF futures contracts are also very lively. Quantitative trading also likes to bet on ETFs because there is no stamp duty.
The current intraday trading volume of ETFs in the market is already very high! The 300 ETF has tens of billions of trading volume every day, regardless of how the market shrinks. Everyone has not even kept up with the way of playing A-shares, let alone talk about technology and experience?
Therefore, the past technology and experience have become obsolete, those are just the logic of stocks. The key is that the market has diversified, the mechanism of short selling, and the ETF derivatives have been in line with international standards. Even Huijin has abandoned retail investors, and when it comes to saving the market, it is also buying ETFs...
Final summary
The market has changed, it used to be the one-sided long play of stocks, and the future will be the multi- and short-term betting on the index. A-shares will enter an era of index investment like Hong Kong and US stocks, which will not be subject to anyone's will, this is the torrent of history, the de-retailization!
Sooner or later, you will feel that Xiao Fan is sincere and shares the strategy of the next version, which is a bit ahead of time! From the first day of writing, it has been mainly sharing index investment, and I don't know where there are so many stock investors. It's clear that they are not on the same frequency, but they still want to throw dirty water!
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